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| Polymarket |
Investors Flock to Bet Against US Economy Following Trump's Tariff Hikes
Over half of the investors on the US betting platform Polymarket are now wagering on a recession in the United States.
As of today, the betting odds for a US recession in 2025 on Polymarket have reached approximately 54%.
This surge in recession bets follows a significant downturn in the US asset market, triggered by President Trump's intensified tariff policies. Yesterday, President Trump announced the imposition of additional tariffs of 10% or more on goods from various trading partners during a speech at the White House Rose Garden.
The announcement sent shockwaves through the US asset market. Yesterday witnessed the largest single-day drop in five years for the three major US stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite each closed down by -3.98%, -4.84%, and -5.97% respectively. These represent the most substantial daily declines since the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in 2020.
Accompanying the stock market slump, the betting odds for a US recession on Polymarket have spiked. The probability of a recession in 2025 jumped by 15% almost overnight, climbing from 39% last month to the current 54%.
The cryptocurrency market has also felt the impact of the US stock market's decline. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rapid drop below the $81,000 mark yesterday afternoon.
The community forum on Polymarket is currently flooded with critical comments directed at President Trump. Numerous users have posted messages such as, "Who was it that said Kamala Harris would crash the US economy?" and "Thanks to Trump, the US stock market lost roughly $2.85 trillion today, and the US asset market has begun to cool."